As Osun State moves towards the 2026 governorship election, election security is becoming a growing concern against the backdrop of Nigeria’s broader security challenges and rising instability in parts of the South-West. A region once viewed as relatively calm is now experiencing more cases of kidnapping, banditry, political violence, and organised crime, with Osun State increasingly exposed to these threats.
Incidents reported in Osun and neighbouring South-West states have raised fresh questions about how insecurity could shape the electoral environment. These risks may affect voter turnout, the deployment of election officials, the movement of sensitive materials, and public trust in the credibility of the poll. Osun’s location, with borders linking it to Ogun, Oyo, Kwara, Ekiti, and Ondo States, also makes cross-border movement by criminal groups, political thugs, and other violent actors a key concern ahead of the 15 August 2026 election.
This Security Threat Assessment reviews the main threats that could affect the Osun State governorship election before, during, and after polling. It highlights key risks and vulnerabilities and sets out practical recommendations for INEC, security agencies, policymakers, political parties, civil society organisations, traditional institutions, the media, and citizens to support a peaceful, secure, and credible election.
