The Rapid Security Threat Assessment (RSTA) of the 2026 Federal Capital Territory (FCT) Area Council Elections examines potential risks and security dynamics ahead of the polls scheduled for 21 February 2026. Conducted through desk research and Key Informant Interviews with security agencies, election officials, civil society actors, political parties, community leaders, women, youth, and persons with disabilities (PWDs), the assessment identifies key threats and hotspots across the six Area Councils.
With over 1.6 million registered voters and 17 political parties contesting 68 positions, the elections are expected to be competitive, primarily among the APC, ADC, and PDP. While large-scale violence is not anticipated, risks such as voter suppression, political thuggery, misinformation, sexual and gender-based violence (SGBV), vote trading, and logistical challenges may affect the credibility and peaceful conduct of the elections particularly in identified flashpoints across Bwari, Gwagwalada, Kuje, and parts of AMAC.
The report highlights significant underrepresentation of women and persons with disabilities as candidates. Women constitute just over 10% of candidates, while no PWD is contesting, raising concerns about inclusive governance and attention to gender-responsive issues.
The assessment notes that insecurity, misinformation, and logistical delays could disproportionately affect vulnerable groups—women, youth, the elderly, and PWDs leading to voter apathy or low turnout.
To mitigate these risks, the report recommends proactive security deployment, improved election logistics, stronger management of misinformation, inclusive security planning, intensified voter education, and collective commitment by stakeholders to ensure peaceful, free, fair, and credible elections.
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